Record breaking 100M+ travelers expected this holiday

FLORHAM PARK - The road are projected to be more crowded than ever this holiday season with more than 100 million travelers expected to take a trip, according to AAA Travel.

That figure – 100.5 million – would mean nearly one in every three Americans will take a trip for more than 50 miles, a 1.4 percent increase from the 2014 holiday and the seventh consecutive year for growth.

The year-end holidays typically see the most travelers because of the extended duration of the holiday period, defined this year as Wednesday, Dec. 23, to Sunday, Jan. 3, 2016.

“The holidays are a time spent with friends and family, and the record number of people traveling this year should make for a joyous travel season,” said Cathleen Lewis, director of public affairs and government relations for AAA Northeast in New Jersey.

The vast majority of travelers, about 90.4 percent in New Jersey (2.23 million) and 90.9 percent nationwide (91.3 million), will be reaching their destinations by automobile.

About 156,000 in New Jersey will travel by air and more than 82,000 by train, bus or watercraft. Nationally, those numbers jump to 5.76 million and 3.44 million.

Lewis credited rising incomes and low gas prices for the continued climb in travelers.

The national average for gas is expected to drop below $2 per gallon by Christmas day, with the average at $2.01 on Dec. 18, 51 cents lower than last year’s price of $2.52 per gallon.

New Jersey’s current average is even lower at $1.90 per gallon, 59 cents lower than last year when the price was $2.49. AAA expects most U.S. drivers will pay the lowest gas prices on New Year’s Day since 2009.

According to a study by the AAA Foundation for Traffic Safety’s Traffic Safety Culture Index, 21 percent of licensed drivers who drink at least occasionally reported having driven when they thought their alcohol level might have been close to, or possibly over, the legal limit in the past year.

With increased drunk driving checkpoints, and more motorists on the road than ever before, AAA cautions drivers to be smart and drive sober.

“As we celebrate the holiday season, AAA urges travelers to be cautious about their safety and the safety of others sharing the roadways,” said Lewis. “Ninety-seven percent of licensed drivers consider it unacceptable to drive when they may have had too much to drink, yet there is an average of one alcohol-impaired driving death every 53 minutes.”

Will it snow, will it snow, will it snow?

The short answer is, don’t count on it.

If you want to see snow this Christmas, you’ll have to go as far west as the Colorado Rockies, meteorologists say.

The weather will continue to be unseasonably warm through the week, and no snow is expected east of the Colorado Rockies for the holiday this year, according to the National Weather Service.

Temperatures are expected to be in the high 50s to the low 60s for the week of Christmas in Morris County, with Christmas Day expected to be sunny with a high in the mid-50s according to the weather service.

And there’s no cold air in sight after that, either.

“It’s very unusual,” said New Jersey State Climatologist David Robinson. “We’re on pace to potentially obliterate the temperature records for the month of December.”

Robinson said he expects this month will be the warmest December since 1895, when temperatures were first recorded.

This weekend, temperatures are expected to drop significantly, but will still be about average for this time of year. Saturday and Sunday will be in the low 40s, with nighttime temperatures at about 30 degrees.

Averages for this weekend hover around 43 degrees, according to 1981 to 2010 daily norms in Freehold from the Office of the New Jersey State Climatologist at Rutgers University.

“It’ll be a normal pre-Christmas weekend,” Robinson said.

Monday, however, it’s supposed to get back into the mid-50s, and ease its way near the 60s by Wednesday, according to the weather service.

There is a chance of rain Monday through Thursday, with the majority of precipitation likely to fall on Wednesday.

The few days after Christmas, the weather will stay warmer than normal, but could also be rainy, he said.

"There's no uncertainty in this outlook, when it comes to the weather being mild and snow-free for the next two weeks," Robinson said.

The odds of snow on the ground in the northwest part of the state is about one out of every three Christmases, Robinson said. Along the Interstate 95 corridor, the odds are about one in five, and the chances get worse as you get closer to the shore.

But this year, a white Christmas is essentially out of the question in the Northeast, and maybe even east of the Mississippi River, Robinson said.

There may be a chance of some leftover snow on the ground at the highest mountain peaks in New England and northern Maine, but even that is unlikely.

If New Jersey gets through the rest of the month without snow, which is likely, it will be the eighth December on record without any snow since 1895.

The warmest Christmas on record was in 1889, when temperatures in Atlantic City reached 69. The average temperature for Dec. 25 is about 41 degrees, said Mitchell Gaines, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Mount Holly.

The reason for the warm weather is a bridge of high pressure that’s been set up over southeast Canada, Gaines said. He said it's likely that the temperatures will stay above average at least through Jan. 8.

“It acts as a road block and keeps the cold air from coming south,” he said.

The Pacific Northwest and the Rocky Mountains have been getting most of the cold air and snow, Gaines said. There's snow on the ground now in Northern Maine, parts of the Dakotas, Minnesota, the mountains in California and on the northern Pacific coast.

Kala Kachmar contributed to this story.Staff Writer Michael Izzo: 973-428-6636; mizzo@GannettNJ.com

Travel by the Numbers

Automobile

New Jersey – 2.23 million (90.4% of all travelers), a 2.5% increase from one year ago.

Nationally – 91.301 million (90.9% of all travelers), a 1.4% increase from last year.

Air

New Jersey – 156,104 (6.3% of all travelers), a 0.7% increase from 2014.

Nationally – 5.76 million (5.7% of all travelers), a .7% increase from one year ago.

Train, Bus, Watercraft or Other Mode

New Jersey – 82,056 (3.3% of all travelers), a 2.2% increase from last year.

Nationally – 3.44 million (3.4% of all travelers), a 2.4% increase from 2014.

AAA’s projections are based on economic forecasting and research by IHS Global Insight. The Colorado-based business information provider teamed with AAA in 2009 to jointly analyze travel trends during major holidays.