Storm could bring a foot of snow to Morris County

Morris County residents should start getting ready for a forceful winter storm that could drop a foot of snow or more.

“All the models are uniformly suggesting a major storm for the East Coast early this weekend,” state climatologist David Robinson said. “Right now, the broader pieces of information still need to be resolved — the size of the storm, the timing of the storm and the location of the heaviest precipitation.”

Pull out your shovels and gloves. Talk to your plow company. If you’re traveling, make sure you have a reliable place to check road conditions, transit schedules and flight information.

“My suggestion is to make sure you get your ducks in line,” Robinson said. “It’s not time to get the bread and milk yet.”

Mitchell Gaines, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Mount Holly, would not predict the amount of snow in inches, saying any alteration in the track of the storm could increase or decrease the amount.

"We should know better tomorrow when we get a clearer track," Gaines said. "But it looks like snow and high winds, gusting to 30 miles per hour or more, possibly more closer to the coast."

But a long-range outline of the storm posted by The Weather Channel predicted: "Heavy snowfall is looking increasingly likely from the Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic states and southern New England. Over a foot of snow is possible in parts of the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic states."

The storm conditions will be caused by upper-level energy, currently pushing into the West, likely triggering the development of a low-pressure system over the South that would then head to near or off the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts on Friday and into the weekend.

Temperatures in Morris County from Friday into Saturday call for upper 20s to lower 30s, Gaines said, although changes in the low-pressure track could cause the precipitation to change over to rain, at least for a while, Friday into Saturday morning.

Gaines, though, said Morris County and the East Coast should expect some difficult weather.

"It's looking like a fairly high-impact event," he said. "Now might be a good time for people to start making some basic storm preparations."

Jersey Shore residents also should prepare for some potential coastal flooding that would also be affected by a full moon.

Although the storm is still several days away and details are subject to change because it hasn’t yet made landfall, weather models are predicting the potential for “moderate to major” coastal flooding and at least 50-mph wind gusts on the coast, said Jim Bunker, a program leader at the National Weather Service in Mount Holly.

The National Weather Service is expected to know a lot more about the storm tomorrow, including more accurate snowfall totals, Bunker said.

"The mechanisms coming together for a major snowfall are textbook," according to the NWS Weather Prediction Center's extended forecast discussion that was posted Tuesday afternoon.

A low-pressure system in the Pacific that was to make landfall in Washington and Oregon later Tuesday is expected to move southeast into the lower Mississippi Valley, pick up energy and moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and move northeast, Bunker said.

A high-pressure system over Canada will feed the cold air south into the northeastern U.S., increasing the probability of snow and likely slowing the forward progress of the storm, which could prolong it, Robinson said.

A full moon on Saturday will bring higher-than-normal tides, which when combined with the storm could cause major flooding along the Jersey Shore.

Current models are suggesting the most significant snowfall totals will be in the central Appalachian Mountains and that the storm could dump a few feet of snow on the Garden State, but nothing is for certain yet, Robinson said.

“No one can tell you with any specificity how much snow is going to fall and where the sweet spot, or the heaviest snow, will fall,” Robinson said.

Staff Writer William Westhoven: 973-917-9242; wwesthoven@gannettnj.com