Morris storm update: Heaviest begins Saturday afternoon

Morris County is in for its first snow storm of the season, but likely won’t get the worst of it in New Jersey, according to the most recent forecast models.

With less than two days before snowfall is expected to begin, the models on Thursday were showing the storm shifting slightly more south than initially expected, according to the Morris County Office of Emergency Management.

That southbound shift may result in slightly lower accumulation totals for Morris County than expected Wednesday, according to Emergency Management.

“A look at several models shows an overall 5-10 inches as a potential outcome depending on your location,” Emergency Management said in an update Thursday morning. “Gusty winds will cause considerable blowing and drifting snow. We are still hoping for a shift a little further south.”

North of Route 80 may only get one to three inches of snow, while south of Route 78 may still get more than a foot of accumulation, according to Emergency management.

Snowfall is expected to begin around 4 a.m. Saturday and continue through about 6 a.m. Sunday, with the heaviest hitting Morris County between 3 p.m. Saturday and 1 a.m. Sunday, according to Emergency Management.

Still, with less than 48 hours until the storm hits the area, the exact path it will take is varying depending on the model, Emergency Management said.

The National Weather Service has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook and a Winter Storm Watch is in effect from 12 a.m. Saturday to 10 a.m. Sunday. The minimum snow forecast offered by the Weather Service predicted less than an inch for Morris County, while the maximum called for 19 inches of accumulation. The forecast at 5 p.m. Thursday predicted somewhere between 8 and 12 inches.

On Thursday afternoon, the National Weather Service issued a high wind advisory for the entire state. Wind gusts are expected to be more significant along the coast. Maximum gusts could get up to about 60 miles per hour. Inland in central and south Jersey, the range is from about 35 to 50 miles per hour.

Maximum wind gusts Saturday are expected to hit the mid-30s in Morris County, according to the Weather Service.

"This has all the markings of a classic nor'easter," state climatologist David Robinson said. "All the dynamics are there, all the positioning is there to bring a big storm to the mid-Atlantic."

A blizzard has three components, Robinson said. There must be three consistent hours of snowfall or snow blowing, frequent 35 mile-per-hour or more wind gusts and visibility less than one-quarter of a mile.

However, meteorologists still don't know exactly where the most snow will fall. That picture will become clearer in the hours before the storm hits, Robinson said.

"That's the forecast nightmare in a nutshell for a storm like this," Robinson said. "There tends to be a swath of snow 100 miles wide. To the north, there's limited precipitation. To the south, a transition to rain. But where's that line? Where's that zone?"

There could also be narrow, 10-mile bands that dump significantly more snow on a particular area, but meteorologists don't know where those bands will be, Robinson said.

Snow is expected to be “dry and fluffy” to start but become wetter and heavier as the storm progresses, making shoveling difficult, the weather service said.

Snow clinging to power lines may result in outages and some roads may become impassible during the storm, according to the weather service.

Louis Uccellini, National Weather Service director, says that the storm could easily cause more than $1 billion in damage and paralyze the Eastern one-third of the nation. He says it has the potential to affect more than 50 million people. Washington looks like the bullseye of the blizzard.

Weather Prediction Center meteorologist Paul Kocin says the blizzard has the potential to be near the top 10 snowstorms in history to hit the East, with the weekend timing and days of warning being a saving grace that could limit death and damage.

American Airlines has canceled the bulk of its flights in the Northeast ahead of the storm. Snow, ice and strong winds will all cause problems for fliers. New York’s three airports - including Newark - will see all Saturday afternoon American flights canceled with flights resuming on Sunday.

The only good news for fliers: Saturday is the slowest travel day of the week. There are a little more than 22,000 flights scheduled to, from or within the U.S., according to flight tracking service FlightAware. That’s about 5,000 fewer flights — and 400,000 fewer passengers — than on Thursday or Friday.

Kala Kachmar of Gannett New Jersey contributed to this story.Staff Writer Michael Izzo: 973-428-6636; mizzo@GannettNJ.com