National Weather Service: 'Deepest apologies'
The blizzard of 2015 was a bust, at least in New Jersey, so what happened?
The formidable storm was 75 to 100 miles farther east than forecast, and its heaviest snowfall missed the Garden State, according to David A. Robinson, the New Jersey state climatologist.
Gary Szatkowski, meteorologist in charge of the National Weather Service Mount Holly Office, tweeted earlier Tuesday morning: "my deepest apologies to many key decision makers and so many members of the general public."
"You made a lot of tough decisions expecting us to get it right, and we didn't,"he said in another tweet. "Once again, I'm sorry."
"This is a big storm further off to our northeast," he tweeted. "New York City will see good amounts of snow, and for portions of New England it will...be very high impact. But for much of New Jersey, and for the Philadelphia Metropolitan area, this is a big forecast miss."
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Over the last couple of days, the weather service forecast as much as 24 inches of snow in Morris County. But the latest snowfall totals include only a couple of inches in Morristown and a few in the Lake Hopatcong area.
A winter storm warning remains in until 3 p.m., however. Travel is dangerous because of snowfall and strong winds that will cause considerable blowing and drifting of snow, resulting in whiteout conditions. Secondary and tertiary roads may become impassable.
At 5:28 a.m., the Mount Holly Office tweeted that the storm was winding down and 90 miles farther east than expected, but it was still slippery, especially in New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania, this morning.
In a Facebook post, the office said "the storm has moved further east and will be departing faster than our forecasts of the past two days. The result is a much more manageable than expected snow event, at least in our area. The worst of the snow this morning should be in NJ where untreated surfaces are slippery with areas of snow and blowing snow."
"The science of forecasting storms, while continually improving, still can be subject to error, especially if we're on the edge of the heavy precipitation shield. Efforts, including research, age already underway to more easily communicate that forecast uncertainty," the post says.
Robinson said "give Gary credit for saying look, sorry everyone was inconvenienced, this forecast busted."
Robinson thinks the bust will hurt the weather service's credibility and "it's a shame that it will, but in a situation like this, it is impossible to explain the decision-making that went into this to the public and have they say anything but you're just doing Monday morning quarterback and trying to cover your tracks."
"Ultimately, it comes down to this is an imperfect science," he said. "We have made tremendous strides in forecasting in recent decades, but there are still going to be errors made that are going to have repercussions to the public."
Todd B. Bates: 732-643-4237; tbates@app.com