Morris could get 10 inches of rain
A one-two punch of storms that could bring a total of 10 inches of rain is headed toward Morris County, and experts are advising people to get ready for the worst.
“People need to start preparing” for potentially significant flooding, said John A. Miller, a flooding expert and legislative chairman with the New Jersey Association for Floodplain Management.
Like during superstorm Sandy three years ago, it’s “a good thing that we are getting really advanced notice from the National Weather Service to start taking this seriously and make the necessary preparations,” said Miller, a water resources engineer with Princeton Hydro LLC. “I think we’ll know more in the next day or two what we’re going to be facing.”
The National Weather Service has issued a “Hazardous Weather Outlook” for northern New Jersey from Thursday through Tuesday. Significant river flooding is possible from Saturday to Monday, according to a briefing from the Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center.
The forecast calls for a slight chance of showers during the day Thursday with rain getting heavier after 4 p.m. Rainfall amounts of between a quarter and half of an inch are possible before it gets really wet Friday.
Friday’s forecast says between 1 and 2 inches are possible during the day and that will be followed by another three-quarters of an inch to an inch after dark.
Saturday’s forecast calls for more rain as does the Sunday forecast.
“The latest weather data suggests that we will experience more significant rain showers tomorrow (Thursday) night and Friday,” said Jeffrey S. Paul, director of the Morris County Office of Emergency Management. “These anticipated showers are the result of a front moving though our area and not related to Tropical Storm Joaquin.”
The flooding on Thursday and Friday would stem from a frontal boundary moving through to the south of our area and very strong high pressure building to our north, according to Gary Szatkowski, meteorologist in charge of the Mount Holly Office.
The Morris County Office of Emergency Management will monitor for flooding problems and work with Morris County Park Police to have high-water vehicles available in support of the OEM assets, if necessary.
“The official track for Tropical Storm Joaquin currently places the storm off of the North Carolina coast through Sunday night,” Paul said. “However, there is not much confidence in this track based on numerous conflicting models.”
Szatkowski said he’s “not ruling much out at this time.”
The Mount Holly office of the Weather Service said Wednesday that “the potential for a very high-impact weather event impacting the region has increased significantly over the past 24 hours. The threat of major coastal flooding, very heavy rainfall and inland flooding has increased for Friday and Saturday, associated with the current storm system, and in advance of Hurricane Joaquin.”
The National Hurricane Center upgraded Joaquin to hurricane status around 8 a.m. Wednesday. At 2 p.m., Joaquin’s top sustained winds had increased to near 85 mph, with higher gusts. The storm was heading toward the southwest at close to 6 mph, and it could become a major hurricane (with at least 111 mph peak sustained winds) during the next couple of days.
Meteorologists are not sure how badly the hurricane could affect the East Coast once it heads north, but one forecast projects it will track closer to the coast and possibly hit New Jersey.
The Weather Center's forecast map showed Joaquin as a hurricane centered southeast of Cape May at 8 a.m. Monday.
“It looks like it’s headed toward New Jersey, but I would say there’s a lot of uncertainty with the storm right now,” said Al Cope, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service’s Mount Holly station.
New Jersey could get up to 10 inches of rain by next Wednesday, according to the Weather Service.
Here are some other points in the Mount Holly briefing:
•Rainfall: Many locations saw 1 to 2 inches of rain Tuesday night. Additional rainfall amounts over the next seven days of 4 to 10 inches are possible for the region, with some locations seeing locally higher amounts.
•Inland flooding: Additional rainfall amounts of 4 to 10 inches will result in a greatly increased threat of flash flooding as well as inland river flooding. If the region gets the higher rainfall amounts, some of the flooding will be severe.
•Winds: Starting Thursday, winds will become northeast and intensify. Wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph are possible over inland locations. Wind gusts exceeding 45 mph are possible in coastal areas. If Joaquin directly affects the region, hurricane-force winds (at least 74 mph) are possible.
• Tidal flooding: Moderate coastal flooding is possible on Thursday. Moderate to major coastal flooding is possible on Friday with the strong northeast winds. This is in advance of any impact from Joaquin. If Joaquin directly affects the region, major to record coastal flooding is possible.